Reprioritize EPC FEED and fuel sourcing for evolving energy signals

AI reading

The EIA reports the US set a new record for total energy production in 2025, driven by record natural gas, crude oil, NGPLs and renewables. Higher domestic gas production is a directional easing factor for domestic fuel availability, but it does not eliminate localized logistics, terminal, or insurance constraints that affect imported LNG

Buyer takeaway

Factor stronger domestic gas production into sourcing strategies for projects where domestic feedstock or spare capacity can replace imported LNG

Cost / money

Directional downward pressure on domestic gas procurement costs, but imported LNG and terminal constraints remain separate risk vectors

Supplier / commercial

Domestic suppliers may offer more competitive terms for pipeline gas or NGPLs, shifting some leverage away from LNG importers

Safety / operations

Increased domestic supply can reduce reliance on imported contingency fuels and ease commissioning fuel risk when pipeline access exists

What to watch

Confirm regional pipeline capacity and delivery points — record production doesn't automatically translate to available, contracted volumes at specific project sites

Key facts

• US set record total energy production in 2025
• Dry natural gas production grew to a record level led by Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville

Source excerpts

Used in this brief

• Cost / money: Record US gas production is a directional cost relief factor for domestic gas procurement, but regional LNG disruptions keep imported cargo pricing and insurance-driven pass-throughs as a project cost risk
• New EIA production data showing record US energy and gas output moderates the supply-side narrative from the prior run, while the Adriatic LNG force majeure remains a live regional disruption
• The EIA reports the US set a new record for total energy production in 2025, driven by record natural gas, crude oil, NGPLs and renewables. Higher domestic gas production is a directional easing factor for domestic fuel availability, but it does not eliminate localized logistics, terminal, or insurance constraints that affect imported LNG

AI reading

Worley was selected to deliver FEED under an EPCM arrangement for the cogeneration element of Dow’s Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan, including integrated post‑combustion carbon capture. The scope is a brownfield cogeneration installation delivered by Worley’s Canada and India global delivery teams and is expected to be operational toward the end of 2030. This is a program‑level FEED that will materially shape long‑lead equipment needs, specialist scopes, and supplier delivery models — watch staffing and mobilisation clauses as FEED outputs are tendered

Buyer takeaway

Treat this as a sustained FEED program, not a one‑off study, because it integrates complex brownfield works and carbon‑capture design that drive long‑lead procurement and specialist subcontractor commitments

Cost / money

Directional increase in early procurement spend and pricing pressure for specialist long‑lead equipment and carbon‑capture integration; vendors may price mobilisation and integration risk higher

Supplier / commercial

Suppliers offering offshore delivery may propose different day rates, lower onsite headcount, and explicit mobilisation gates or travel pass‑throughs that need to be reconciled in scopes of work

Safety / operations

Brownfield integration with capture systems raises start‑up complexity and increases pre‑start inspection and spare parts requirements to avoid commissioning delays

What to watch

Watch FEED deliverables for explicit delivery model statements, onsite supervision assumptions, and mobilisation clauses that will flow into EPC pricing

Key facts

• FEED for cogeneration with post‑combustion carbon capture
• Delivery via Worley Canada and India Global Integrated Delivery team
• Facility expected operational toward the end of 2030

Source excerpts

Used in this brief

• Supplier / commercial: Global integrated delivery teams (Canada + India) in the FEED award signal more offshore execution and potentially fixed‑term staffing proposals — suppliers may offer lower day rates offshore but add travel, local supervision, or mobilisation gates
• Safety / operations: Combining cogeneration and post‑combustion capture on a brownfield site raises start‑up complexity and inspection needs; projects should assume longer pre‑start readiness and spare‑parts buffers for safe commissioning
• Next 72 hours — Tag and flag all FEED-related and fuel-dependent line items in the procurement register for projects exposed to Path2Zero‑style brownfield FEED work.. Rationale: because the Worley FEED award signals sustained long‑lead and specialist scope that requires immediate visibility for supplier selection and mobilisation planning.. Owner: Category. KPI: Procurement register reflects FEED long‑lead items and priority supplier engagements for impacted projects

AI reading

EIA data show that about one‑fifth of US renewable diesel and related biofuel production was exported in the second half of 2025, with exports concentrated from Gulf Coast and West Coast regions. Exports and temporary idling tied to regulatory timing affected early‑2026 flows and can change local availability of renewable diesel for projects that accept alternative fuels in commissioning

Buyer takeaway

Don't assume alternative fuel availability — export patterns and temporary idling materially change regional supply and delivery risk for renewable diesel

Cost / money

Export volumes can tighten domestic availability and raise spot prices or require longer lead times for fuel deliveries

Supplier / commercial

Fuel suppliers may prioritise export customers or regional terminals, which can change allocation rules for domestic buyers

Safety / operations

Switching temporary fuel types requires validated fuel quality acceptance and procedural updates to avoid commissioning or operational issues

What to watch

Verify supplier allocation priorities and any export commitments that could constrain domestic delivery options

Key facts

• About 20% of renewable diesel and other biofuels production exported in 2H25
• Exports primarily shipped from US Gulf Coast and West Coast; early 2026 exports were lower du

Source excerpts

Used in this brief

• EIA data show that about one‑fifth of US renewable diesel and related biofuel production was exported in the second half of 2025, with exports concentrated from Gulf Coast and West Coast regions. Exports and temporary idling tied to regulatory timing affected early‑2026 flows and can change local availability of renewable diesel for projects that accept alternative fuels in commissioning
• Buyer bottom line: shifting export flows for renewable diesel affect regional availability of alternative fuels for commissioning or temporary operations and should be checked when planning fuel sourcing
• Don't assume alternative fuel availability — export patterns and temporary idling materially change regional supply and delivery risk for renewable diesel

AI reading

Hydrocarbon Engineering lists an Edison update that QatarEnergy has an ongoing force majeure affecting LNG supplies to the Adriatic LNG terminal. This remains an operational constraint for projects relying on imported LNG and is already driving shorter supplier commitment windows and allocation mechanics in the market

Buyer takeaway

Assume supplier timing leverage in regions affected by force majeure and surface fuel‑dependent items for contingency planning

Cost / money

Higher landed cost risk and potential for pass‑throughs or rescheduling fees on imported LNG deliveries tied to affected terminals

Supplier / commercial

Terminals and LNG suppliers may shorten quote validity, add mobilisation gates, or propose allocation clauses to protect limited volumes

Safety / operations

Compressed replacement timelines for fuel can erode pre‑start inspection windows and spare part buffers, increasing handover and start‑up risk

What to watch

Scan RFQs and POs for shortened quote validity, mobilisation gates, allocation language, and fuel/transport pass‑through clauses

Key facts

• Ongoing force majeure affecting LNG deliveries to the Adriatic LNG terminal
• Market responses include shortened supplier commitment windows and allocation language

Source excerpts

Used in this brief

• Dow awarded Worley FEED for Path2Zero cogeneration with integrated post-combustion carbon capture — this creates sustained FEED and brownfield execution demands that will drive long‑lead procurement and supplier coordination over the coming program. US energy production hit record levels, led by natural gas growth — this eases some upstream supply pressure directionally but does not remove regional LNG delivery constraints that can still affect imported fuel availability for projects. Edison reports QatarEnergy has an ongoing force majeure affecting LNG deliveries to the Adriatic terminal — operationally suppliers are likely to tighten quote validity and mobilization terms where imported LNG is part of commissioning or fuel plans. US renewable diesel and other biofuel exports were a meaningful share of production in late 2025, and export patterns plus temporary idling of plants are changing regional fuel flows buyers rely on for commissioning or temporary fuel
• Next 72 hours — Run a focused Contracts scan of active RFQs and POs to identify quote validity reductions, mobilisation gates, and pass‑through language related to fuel and shipping.. Rationale: because the reported LNG force majeure and terminal access constraints frequently trigger supplier clauses that shift cost and timing risk to buyers.. Owner: Contracts. KPI: Priority redline list of at‑risk documents for negotiation and amendment
• Next 2-4 weeks — Ops to rebuild commissioning fuel plans and nominate fallback fuel vendors (bunkering or temporary diesel/renewable blends) for projects relying on imported LNG or specific fuel.... Rationale: because ongoing LNG delivery constraints and changing renewable diesel export flows can compress commissioning fuel windows and require validated alternatives.. Owner: Ops. KPI: Updated commissioning plans with nominated fallback fuel sources and acceptance criteria recorded in project files