Hormuz closure and related production outages are key drivers in EIA’s latest forecast
What happened
Second, we know that the closure is forcing production to shut in, but we can only estimate these outages. Our modelling indicates that fuel prices will continue to rise until these variables resolve. This matters for Projects (EPC/EPCM & Construction) because fresh price movement and input-cost detail should reset bid assumptions, lstk vs reimbursable choice, and negotiation guardrails with 7.5, 9.1, 6.7 as the clearest commercial anchors; expect bid selectivity
Buyer takeaway
For Projects (EPC/EPCM & Construction), treat this as a cost-boundary signal rather than just a headline; buyer assumptions may need refreshing before the next quote or award decision
Cost / money
Use this to refresh should-cost views and challenge any fast repricing. Keep the read-through directional unless the source itself provides hard commercial numbers
Supplier / commercial
Suppliers with fresh cost justification may push harder on reopeners, indexation, shorter quote validity, or pass-through language. Buyers should separate real drivers from negotiation posture
Safety / operations
The operational risk is indirect: tight budgets or repricing battles often reappear later as reduced slack, substitutions, or execution compromises that buyers then have to manage
What to watch
Watch for shorter quote validity, reopeners, pass-through requests, or attempts to reset pricing on the back of weak evidence
Key facts
- Second, we know that the closure is forcing production to shut in, but we can only estimate t
- Our modelling indicates that fuel prices will continue to rise until these variables resolve
- As a result, the EIA estimates that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain colle
- Crude oil price forecastThe Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103/bbl in March, and EIA ex
